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All articles I see mention tens of thousands of affected users. Even if that's off by an order of magnitude, would not reach 80%. Resolving NO.

Unless Twitter reports a press release saying what percentage of users were affected (current CEO claims most of the users are bots) or we know for certain that ALL users were affected, I don't see how this market would ever be settled YES

@MP By those criteria, how could it ever be settled to NO? Twitter probably isn't going to release a statement that it affected less than 80% of users either.

Is this going to resolve YES? TechCrunch says yesterday's outage lasted about five hours. The Verge shows a graph from DownDectector showing it lasting about three hours.

@DawnPaladin It wasn't affecting anything like 80% of users however.

@EdwardKmett Are we sure about that?

@IsaacKing Pretty damn sure. Two immediate data points:

1) As anecdata, my wife was sitting on the couch browsing Twitter trying to figure out why I was so worked up about it, so not all web users were affected.

2) Users of the mobile app seem not to have been affected at all and the key point there is at last check over 80-85% of Twitter users were on mobile, so really only about 15-20% of users are even candidates for having been affected.

@EdwardKmett The news sites I'm reading agree that desktop was affected more than mobile, but the NYT notes some trouble with mobile too. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/28/technology/twitter-outages.html

Arbitrage:

Will Twitter have more than 3 consecutive hours of downtime in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition