If LK-99 does not turn out to be an actual room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor, this resolves N/A.

(Roughly, if this; https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre resolves NO, this question resolves N/A.)

Otherwise, I'll try to estimate the economic value of the invention, looking at stuff like company valuations, patent sales or fees, and credible media/academic estimates, and, if the value exceeds 100 million USD, this resolves YES. If the value is hard to estimate but seems around that value from just tangible benefits, I'll lean yes if it seems there's hard-to-quantify value created.

This might resolve YES early if it's clear the value is already way past the threshold.

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

28% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

• Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The base question is resolved as NO.

  • The market is now resolved as N/A.