If LK-99 is confirmed to be a superconductor, will it produce more than 100 million USD by 2025?
50
2.3k
1.6k
2025
24%
chance

If LK-99 does not turn out to be an actual room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor, this resolves N/A.

(Roughly, if this; https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre resolves NO, this question resolves N/A.)

Otherwise, I'll try to estimate the economic value of the invention, looking at stuff like company valuations, patent sales or fees, and credible media/academic estimates, and, if the value exceeds 100 million USD, this resolves YES. If the value is hard to estimate but seems around that value from just tangible benefits, I'll lean yes if it seems there's hard-to-quantify value created.

This might resolve YES early if it's clear the value is already way past the threshold.

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sold Ṁ483 of NO

Woops, I forgot I wasn't supposed to bet. Sold the shares. Sorry.

This isn’t in the market description, but Franck commits not to bet in a comment below:

“Betting policy: I won't bet in this market to remain unbiased.“

Betting policy: I won't bet in this market to remain unbiased.

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