Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Russia takes military retaliation in response to the U.S. seizure of Russian-flagged oil tankers (the Marinera and M/T Sophia) on January 7, 2026. Military retaliation includes direct military action, armed attacks, or escalatory military operations targeting U.S. assets, personnel, or allies. The retaliation must be publicly attributed to or clearly connected to the tanker seizures. Diplomatic protests, sanctions, or cyber operations alone do not qualify. The market resolves NO if no such military retaliation occurs within a reasonable timeframe (suggest 6-12 months from the seizure date). Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major news outlets and official government statements.

Background

On January 7, 2026, the U.S. seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic following a weeks-long pursuit, and also seized another sanctioned tanker, the M/T Sophia, in the Caribbean. Russian military had moved naval assets and a submarine to protect the Bella 1, though it's unclear how close those vessels were when the seizure occurred. The Trump administration does not recognize the vessel's Russian status and considers it stateless, while Russian officials condemned the seizure as violating international law, stating "no state has the right to use force against ships properly registered in the jurisdictions of other states".

Considerations

Both China and Russia objected to the anti-Maduro operation but have taken no direct action in response. The tanker's status is disputed—the vessel was originally sanctioned and flying false flags before Russia granted it temporary registration on December 24, 2025, just days before the seizure. Some U.S. senators have raised concerns about whether the seizure may escalate into broader hostilities.