Resolves YES if Donald Trump is in state or police custody (even willingly or briefly) on March 21, 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
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I will wait to resolve this market to make absolutely sure no late breaking reports of his arrest come out
@MarkIngraham Patience is a virtue, I want to make sure that he didn't get arrested at 11:59 PM PST. Does anyone know his location right now???
Trump singlehandedly put entire NYPD on high alert with a false threat of himself being arrested by the NYPD.
Arrest is a broad term. Trump can citizen arrest himself right now and walk into a police station. Arrest is a procedural rather than legal concept. But as I understand the question we are using what the media considers an arrest.
@MarkIngraham No. Wrong. You are misunderstanding the market.
As I stated in the description, an arrest is being in state or police custody.
I work with the sheriff's department. If my sister "citizen arrested herself", we would just ignore her, or direct her to a mental health facility. But she would be free to leave.
As I have previously stated, an arrest is being in state or police custody and not being free to leave.
What the media says does not matter. I am going by the precise legal definition of an arrest.
@ForrestTaylor I can citizen arrest myself in my house right now. I agree with your criteria I'm just warning if there are rules lawyers. Being arrested is like going to a party. It just means police have access to you for some purpose, not specifically that there is physically a police officer standing next to you.
@MarkIngraham it's also unnecessary to arrest anyone. Police can detain you or not describe what they are doing, they have no reason to arrest and state it as a arrest. Arrest doesn't actually exist as a real word in real life, they don't put billionaires in handcuffs and feed them wrotten hot dogs in jail.
@MarkIngraham Okay. I am aware of the rules lawyers. I have specified my definition of "arrest". If anyone is unaware of this, I have done my best, caveat emptor.
You present an interesting question about what police state. Is a random police stop an arrest? Is stopping Trump on the highway and giving him a ticket for speeding enough to resolve this market YES?
Technically, it might be, but I am very doubtful that such events will happen. I certainly hope not.
@ForrestTaylor "arrest" is a purely semantic concept. Like if you show up for a party it doesn't mean you physically did anything, just you showed up and left. Any situation where trump interacts with police is an arrest. In all likelihood trump will be house arrested and his lifestyle will not change at all, there is no reason to send police or physically do anything as he isn't going to flee.
@MarkIngraham If Trump is house arrested, this market will resolve YES. If Trump willingly walks into police custody, this market will resolve YES.
If police drive up to Trump and he greets them and then they leave, this market will resolve NO.
@ForrestTaylor they will call him on the phone and tell him he's arrested and it will resolve YES, and if convicted he will just stay home and get a suspended sentence and not change his lifestyle at all.
@MarkIngraham If the cops call him on the phone and tell him he's arrested, this market will resolve YES, because he's not free to leave
Will Trump be cuffed and thrown in jail?
On Tuesday 2023, March 21st in detail?
In this market of prediction, I'll wager a dime,
that the odds are higher of monkeys flying in line!
@Mason he doesn't have to be handcuffed or thrown in jail for this market to resolve YES
Markets out of sync:
https://manifold.markets/WeatherIsNiceUpHere/will-donald-trumps-prediction-of-hi
@ErickBall Technically this market should be lower than that one, as that one is "by Tuesday" and mine is "on Tuesday."
Good question, I am using the normal legal definition of when a person is under arrest- when they are in police or state custody and are not free to leave.
Have updated the description to reflect this.
Since this may be a contested definition, I have sold all my shares and will not be betting in this market.
Even if he somehow learned that an indictment was coming on Tuesday, I think the chances that they arrest him are close to nil.
@PeterBorah As a rule, if Trump tweets the sky is blue, you should check at a window.
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