Will OpenAI roll out the new 4o voice mode within the next 2 weeks?
Jun 24

Resolves yes if they start shipping the voice mode from the GPT-4o presentation to the first users within the next 2 weeks.

Resolves no if we still don’t see anybody testing/using it outside of OpenAI.

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Does anyone know how reliable manifold markets tend to be where the largest trader is also the question author at the same time, betting in their own markets? @Flowers, the question creator, spent Ṁ3,351 on YES bets to date. Runner up is @MugaSofer with about Ṁ2,626 in NO. Are there norms against this or recourse mechanisms to help if the resolution is clearly incorrect, or even just questionable?

Why wouldnt you be allowed to trade your own bets? This would only be questionable if the person already knows the outcome beforehand.

I clearly defined how it will be resolved. There is hardly any ambiguity here.

Maybe it's perfectly fine, I'm trying to understand if this is considered concerning on this website or if it's entirely within the norm. I don't mean to imply foregone conclusions. I haven't been betting for long and I've seen on another market comments discussing a somewhat similar situation after which the author fully divested IIRC. Trying to seek more info on what's good around this.

I wouldn't worry, the mods would intervene if the creator tried to blatantly resolve wrongly.

There's some potential for conflicts of interest in ambiguous resolutions, especially when the question is inherently subjective, but this seems pretty unlikely to be ambiguous; either the feature ships or it doesn't, right?

Edit: That said, I did lose a chunk of mana over the edge case where GPT-4o wasn't clearly a "GPT-4.5" equivalent or not. I don't think that was a conflict of interest issue, though, that was just genuinely an unanticipated edge case where reasonable people disagreed.

What if it only partially ships? I guess that's still a YES, right? Even if a very limited beta cohort is invited, i.e. 0.1% of their userbase? cc @MugaSofer @Flowers

"To the first users", so yeah, a partial rollout would count.

I see so many people convinced the old gpt-4 mode is the new gpt-4o mode 🤦

Why are people so confident about this ?

@RemNi Yeah, people, put your mouth where your mana is and tell us if you know something

bought Ṁ50 YES

@RemNi I hold it pretty close to 50%.

  • They have the voice mode ready from a technical perspective

  • They are coming under pressure for failing to deliver features

  • The issues with Sky may have been more about securing media industry deals

  • They should absolutely release it before August.

The question seems to me to be whether it is a mid-June thing or whether it is a late-June, early-July thing.

bought Ṁ300 NO from 48% to 36%

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