Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) feature natural and convenient speech-to-speech capabilities?
7
39
220
2026
39%
chance

Background: Speech-to-speech capabilities in AI involve transforming spoken language input into an understanding that can be processed and then delivering a spoken language output, closely mimicking human-to-human interaction. This level of interaction requires advanced natural language understanding, real-time processing, and high-fidelity speech generation, posing significant challenges in computational linguistics and artificial intelligence.

Question: Will the next major release of an OpenAI LLM feature natural speech-to-speech capabilities, enabling users to engage in conversations as naturally and conveniently as they would with another human over a remote call?

Resolution Criteria: For this question, the "next major release of an OpenAI LLM" is defined as the next model from OpenAI that satisfies at least one of the following criteria:

  1. It is consistently called "GPT-4.5" or "GPT-5" by OpenAI staff members

  2. It is estimated to have been trained using more than 10^26 FLOP according to a credible source.

  3. It is considered to be the successor to GPT-4 according to more than 74% of my Twitter followers, as revealed by a Twitter poll (if one is taken).

This question will resolve to "YES" if this LLM, upon release to the general public, demonstrates the ability to engage in a natural conversation with you, as if you were talking to a real human over a remote call. This requires, at the minimum, that the system can:

  1. Understand spoken language input from users in real-time.

  2. Process this input to generate contextually relevant, generally accurate responses.

  3. Convert these text responses back into natural, human-like spoken language without consistent multi-second delays between replies, ensuring a seamless conversational flow.

  4. Handle pauses in the conversation well, like an ordinary human would.

  5. Handle interruptions naturally, like an ordinary human would.

  6. Understand when it's your turn to talk, without requiring you to press a button to indicate that it's your "turn".

  7. Maintain a conversation with a human user over at least a 5-minute period without breakdowns in understanding or response generation, assessed under conditions mimicking a standard remote communication setup (e.g., a phone call).

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The app already does that…

@Snarflak It doesn't satisfy the criteria in this question.

@MatthewBarnett Which part?