Will this market's value ever hit 20%?
52
53
1k
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if at any time, the displayed percentage of the market is at or below 20%. It resolves NO if this has not happened by the closing date, which is 1 week after creation of this market

Of course, there will likely be a delay between the market hitting 20% and me noticing this fact, but I will resolve it as soon as I notice that it has occurred.

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,287
2Ṁ1,977
3Ṁ504
4Ṁ437
5Ṁ376
Sort by:

I was planning on doing exactly what happened, after i got enough mana to do so.

predicted YES

Confused about why my limit order at 21% didn't get filled all the way, despite the market going below that value. At first, I was thinking it must have happened when most of my mana was tied up in "The Market" so that I didn't have enough balance to fill the order, but I would have seen my balance go to 0 if that were the case.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan I don't know. It seems that you certainly had enough mana when the 20% was reached on this market, so presumably your limit order was canceled before. Do you know the following: if you have a limit order worth A mana, and you have B < A mana in your balance, do you trade B mana on your limit order, or your limit order is just canceled entirely?

One thing that could have happened is that your limit order was partially triggered and canceled, but then your balance stays above 0 because you get immediately paid out for your YES shares canceling out part of your NO shares.

Can you see in your notification at what time your limit order was triggered?

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn The only one that's still in my notification history is the one at 20%:

It seems that the one at 21% must have been cancelled somehow, but I don't know if that's a bug, or if Manifold automatically cancels limit orders in some situation I wasn't aware of. As far as I know, they only get canceled if it's time for them to be filled and the user is out of mana.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn I should note: I didn't actually hold any NO shares, I just had the limit orders. So I still profited, but not as much as I could have if the full 1K limit order had been filled.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Oh, I see. In that case I'm indeed confused why your mana didn't hit 0 during the night.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan It's annoying that not all modifications of limit orders are visible in the history (I don't want to go through the API to see if there's more info there).

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Yeah, I really wish it would just show in the trades tab when limit orders were filled, instead of only showing when they were placed and how much was eventually filled.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn I’m not 100% sure, but I think there’s been an issue @jack et al have raised for awhile where if you don’t have enough balance to fully fill a limit order, you don’t partially fill it either

predicted YES

@Conflux Hm, that must be what happened then.


free mana if someone wants to bet. It's got 10 traders ... just 1 more.

predicted YES

@Messi not worth the time lol, no profit motive it’s already at 99.7 😂

predicted YES

@DylanSlagh lol how about now? xD I sold what I had in it

predicted YES

@firstuserhere sigh… 2 mana here I come

predicted YES
predicted YES

@IsaacKing why did you cancel your YES limit orders at 21%? You would have made so much profit!

predicted YES

@IsaacKing not that you need it you fat cat 😂

predicted NO

@DylanSlagh I didn't cancel them all, I left exactly enough limit orders to cancel out my NO shares if filled. I suspect there was a bug somewhere, I shouldn't have come out net negative.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I see that you created 600 mana of limit orders at 21% that seem to have been filled, 13k mana of limit orders at 21% that were canceled (I guess manually by yourself) and 1280 mana of of limit orders at 10%. Were those last limit orders at 10% supposed to be at 21%?

predicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn Yes, I'm not sure what happened there. That would be a strange typo to make, but also a strange bug.

predicted YES

I thought this was a fun little experiment.
There are some interesting shenanigans you can perform, and you get in trouble if you bid NO without corresponding limit order.

predicted YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Indeed so. I thought I'd be sneaky and get away with it, but ended up with a loss cuz no limit order

predicted NO

@FlorisvanDoorn I liked the market. If you have some interesting variations of this idea I'll trade again

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode I'm glad you liked it! I was indeed thinking of a few other self-referential markets where it's not only the final result that matters. I'll start some of them soon.