![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FFline%2Feceda70e7932.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will russia invade Sumy oblast before 1st of July 2024
Mini
6
Ṁ865Jul 1
1.2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve Yes if the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) AND Suriyak's map (https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1718315232844554544) list at least 2 municipalities in Sumy oblast to be under Russian control (A municipality is considered under russian control when the townhall is marked to be under assessed russian control by the ISW and when the municipality is marked by a red dot in Suriyak's map)
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
31% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
19% chance
Will Russia open a new front in Ukraine before September 1, 2024?
14% chance
Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
21% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
9% chance
Wil Russia capture Avdiivka by Feb 1, 2024
0% chance
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2024?
1% chance
Will Russia invade Finland before the end of 2024?
1% chance
Will Russia end it's invasion of Ukraine before the Olympics end?
1% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2024?
4% chance