Will the probability of the question resolving as "Yes" exceed 50%?

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resolved May 20

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This market resolves to "YES" if, one week after it opens, the probability of this question resolving as "YES" exceeds 50%.

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I find it more interesting the other way around (Resolves yes if the probability is below 50%). This way some whale can dump all his M$ just before close to cash out the whole market.

This old chestnut!

@Undox A playful right of passage :)

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will this question resolve as yes or no (resolves based on higher probability)

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

38% chance

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