Will my daughter have a puppy by her 10th birthday (in Aug 2022)

6

4

Ṁ751

Ṁ122

resolved Aug 29

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The market resolves to Yes if my nine-year-old daughter has a dog on or before her tenth birthday in August. The market will resolve at the end of August. From her lips: "I ask every day but my dad doesn't want to say yes. My dad is allergic to cats and dogs. My mom says no, but she doesn't have a strong opinion. Our apartment is about 82 square meters in Tokyo. There are parks around for dogs, and a very big park about 30 minutes walk from here. I hope to get a Beagle but any type would be fine. Puppies are so fuzzy and so cute and they're the best companion you could ever get (even though cats are nice too). Seriously, are you going to type everything I say? Haha. I would give 50% of the work of taking care of the dog to my parents."

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ15 of YES

If she's asking every day I bet she gets it. Wouldn't get a beagle though.

predicted YES

@NathanBraun I recommend a Maltese/Toy Poodle.

predicted YES

(cross breed, not one of each!)

sold Ṁ17 of NO

Source: lived in about ~50sqm apartment with 2 adults, 2 dogs, 2 kids for 2 weeks, with similar setup - dog parks in the near vicinity. It is not un-doable.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

The existence of this question to me implies they are considering to some extent buying a dog. I still think a low probability is warranted because of being in a big city, no house or back garden, but then a lot of people have dogs in cities (usually smaller ones I presume) and if you are willing to take it for a walk to that local park twice a day it is doable.

bought Ṁ600 of NO

Both parents dont want it and they live in a small house, the park is far away and theres no way a 10 year old girl can look after it by herself.

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Will a dog walk on the moon before a baby is born on the moon?

Will I have my first child by August 2026?

Will a dog walk on the moon before the end of 2060?

Will one of Peter Thiel's daughters ask him to get a pet cockatoo by EOY 2039?

Will we be able to communicate with dogs in English, by 2030?

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Will the Pembroke Welsh Corgi fall out of the top 20 most popular dog breeds according to the AKC by 2029?

Will there be a dog on Mars any time through 2036?