When will Germany's tourism return to 2019 levels?

Question

International arrivals in Germany peaked at 39,563,000 in 2019.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL?locations=DE

Visits have plummetted in 2020--2022. What will be the first year that inbound arrivals to Germany hits 39,563,000 or more, according to the numbers provided on worldbank.org or a similarly reputable source?

(https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=ST.INT.ARVL&locations=DE)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2026, followed by 2028 or after and 2027 are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Oct 10, 2026).

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