At time of writing the 5th place in Serendipitous Pixies is around 2,600 mana. The next highest 5th place is around 1,800.
This market resolves YES if SP have the highest 5th place mana earned when the current leagues close. Resolves NO if another league has a higher 5th place than SP. If for some reason there's ambiguity I reserve the right to resolve NA or PROB to how certain I am in the result. I will allow discussion before doing this. But I can't see why there would be ambiguity so we should be fine.
I may bet in this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ76 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ10 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
4 days before the end of the season, the Prescient Predictors are the closest ones, with their 5th place holding Ṁ2,659 mana earned, (1061 less than the 5th place of the Serendipitous Pixies)
@NoyaV they're also much flatter at the top. They can't win by their no5 having a good break because even their No1 is below our no5. The only realistic way for this to resolve NO is if I have a disaster. (Even then, our no6 might save us.)
@NoyaV I just need to steer clear of markets like this one for four days (this was the one that made me drop to 5th):
The difference between some of the leagues is pretty stark.
Not only is fifth place in Serendipitous Pixies currently higher than it is in every other platinum league, it's even higher than it is in one of the diamond leagues (though first and second in that league are on another level entirely)!
https://manifold.markets/leagues/2/diamond/bullish-dragons
@aoife is currently in 6th place in SP with 1,504 points - not high enough to get promoted from our league but the kind of score that would be enough to be in first place in quite a few of the platinum leagues!