When will the Bute House Agreement end? (Scottish Government SNP/Green power sharing)
3
35
330
resolved Apr 26
100%36%
1st half 2024
4%
2023
6%
2nd half 2024
6%
1st half 2025
6%
2nd half 2025
6%
2026 pre-election
17%
2026 election aftermath
6%
later in 2026
6%
2027
6%
Not before 2028

The Bute House Agreement is a power sharing agreement between the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Green Party, agreed in 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party%E2%80%93Scottish_Greens_agreement

The agreement has recieved significant criticism from other parties and some SNP MSPs. Will the agreement end before 2028? If so, when?

By "end" I'm trying to get at the agreement breaking down. If it is modified, that's not enough to trigger resolution, unless the modifications are sufficiently major. Two examples of major modifications that would trigger resolution are:

  • Removal of ministerial positions for Green MSPs. (Currently there are 2. Reduction to 1 will not trigger resolution. Reduction to 0 will. Reshuffling will not.)

  • Removal of confidence and supply agreement.

If the agreement is renamed, that's not enough to trigger resolution, unless combined with major modifications.

If another party is included in a new power sharing agreement that also includes Greens and SNP, that's not enough to trigger resolution. What this market is about is the ties between Greens and SNP breaking down, not about whether further ties are made.

If the SNP lose an election and do not form the next government, that counts as the Bute House Agreement ending. Basically, the government needs to contain both SNP and Green members.

The options for half years should be self explanatory. (30th June is 1st half. 1st July is 2nd half.) The next general election is sheduled to be held on 7 May 2026. Pre-election means up to the end of 6th May, but realistically it would probably be before the election campaign starts. (If they fight the election based on separate platforms and manifestos, but Green ministers are still in post, that doesn't count as the agreement ending.) If the date of the election changes, the definition of that answer also changes correspondingly. If the date changes to no longer be in 2026, then for the purposes of this market, the whole of 2026 becomes "pre-election" (because it's pre- the next election). For the purposes of this market, the "aftermath" is 3 calendar months from the date of the election. So if the election is on the 7th of May, the "aftermath" ends at the end of the 6th of August.

I will not bet in this market, just in case there are judgement calls to be made about whether changes to the agreement are major enough to be considered the "end" of the agreement.

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Yousaf has ended the agreement with immediate effect and Harvie and Slater are no longer ministers. Resolving to 1st half 2024.

sold Ṁ1,000 2023 NO

Whoops, I accidentally made a trade because I forgot I said I wouldn't. Sold again immediately so hopefully no harm done.

To make traders aware, this market will definitely not resolve to 2023. But I don't think I can resolve individual options on this type of market. Feel free to bet it as low as you like, but be aware you might have to wait a while to be paid out.

I usually jump in any British market but... there are waay to many options here. Why not asked a Yes/No question with the next election (or just after) as the turning point?

@palcu because I'm interested in the chance that it will break down in the next few months as well. I could create half a dozen markets, but it seems neater to combine them in one market to save people the hassle of arbitrage.