The Bute House Agreement is a power sharing agreement between the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Green Party, agreed in 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_National_Party%E2%80%93Scottish_Greens_agreement

The agreement has recieved significant criticism from other parties and some SNP MSPs. Will the agreement end before 2028? If so, when?

By "end" I'm trying to get at the agreement breaking down. If it is modified, that's not enough to trigger resolution, unless the modifications are sufficiently major. Two examples of major modifications that would trigger resolution are:

• Removal of ministerial positions for Green MSPs. (Currently there are 2. Reduction to 1 will not trigger resolution. Reduction to 0 will. Reshuffling will not.)

• Removal of confidence and supply agreement.

If the agreement is renamed, that's not enough to trigger resolution, unless combined with major modifications.

If another party is included in a new power sharing agreement that also includes Greens and SNP, that's not enough to trigger resolution. What this market is about is the ties between Greens and SNP breaking down, not about whether further ties are made.

If the SNP lose an election and do not form the next government, that counts as the Bute House Agreement ending. Basically, the government needs to contain both SNP and Green members.

The options for half years should be self explanatory. (30th June is 1st half. 1st July is 2nd half.) The next general election is sheduled to be held on 7 May 2026. Pre-election means up to the end of 6th May, but realistically it would probably be before the election campaign starts. (If they fight the election based on separate platforms and manifestos, but Green ministers are still in post, that doesn't count as the agreement ending.) If the date of the election changes, the definition of that answer also changes correspondingly. If the date changes to no longer be in 2026, then for the purposes of this market, the whole of 2026 becomes "pre-election" (because it's pre- the next election). For the purposes of this market, the "aftermath" is 3 calendar months from the date of the election. So if the election is on the 7th of May, the "aftermath" ends at the end of the 6th of August.

I will not bet in this market, just in case there are judgement calls to be made about whether changes to the agreement are major enough to be considered the "end" of the agreement.