Historically, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has experienced coups, but the African Union (AU) has made significant efforts to discourage coups through the Lomé Declaration and other measures, which have contributed to a decline in such events across Africa in the 2000s​​. However, the resurgence of coups in recent years, with 2021 seeing as many coup attempts as the preceding six years combined, indicates a volatile environment where the risk of coups cannot be entirely dismissed​​.

The concept of "coup contagion" suggests that coups in one country can embolden or inspire potential plotters in other countries, and the recent wave of coups in Africa underscores the reality of this phenomenon​​. Nonetheless, efforts by neighboring countries and leaders to preemptively counteract such threats by reshuffling military and defense officials highlight a proactive approach to mitigating these risks​​.

Given the current geopolitical climate and the efforts by African nations and the AU to prevent unconstitutional changes of government, the odds of a successful coup in the Congo in 2024 are low. However, the recent trend of increased coup attempts across the continent and the concept of coup contagion necessitate a cautious outlook.

10% (Low chance this is true)

80 out of 100 (High confidence)

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https://archive.ph/SCC2b

"Analysts at BMI, a research firm, reckon South Sudan is at most risk, followed by the Central African Republic, much of which is no longer under government control. SBM Intelligence, a Nigerian firm, reckons the chances are highest in the Democratic Republic of Congo."