Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?
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This might be a decisive factor in the tax battles happening. From the Economist: "Even as plans for a global minimum tax move forward in 2024, however, another important part of the big international tax deal could fall apart. For years governments have complained that fast-rising sales of digital products and services have allowed big foreign firms to make a mint from their citizens without setting up local outfits they can tax. To tackle this, the agreement in 2021 granted governments a firmer right to tax some of the profits that the world’s largest companies earn from selling stuff in their markets. In exchange countries agreed to drop plans to impose new taxes of their own on tech giants, which would make doing business across borders more complex.

The problem is that most companies affected by these provisions are American—and America’s Congress is unwilling to grant foreigners more rights to tax its firms (even though Joe Biden’s administration was instrumental in arranging the global deal). If this remains the case by the end of 2024, some 30 countries may press ahead with new tariffs. That could prompt angry American politicians to hit back with levies of their own."

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