Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Garland in Garland v. Cargill before July 31, 2024?
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20
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resolved Jun 14
Resolved
NO

[500M subsidy]

A ruling in favor of Garland would uphold the ATF's ban on bump stocks (a type of gun) and effectively prohibit their use in the United States by classifying it as a machine gun. A ruling against the classification could significantly alter the regulation of firearms and potentially impact gun control policies across the United States, potentially leading to a broader interpretation of Second Amendment rights.

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sold Ṁ226 YES

@traders Damn. I was really long this one after argument. Should have been more cynical.

65%

65%

predicted YES

95%

I believe there is a 55% probability that SCOTUS will rule in favor of Garland in Garland v. Cargill before July 31, 2024. This conclusion is based on the historical average time for issuing decisions after oral arguments, SCOTUS's past rulings on Second Amendment cases, and the government's favorable legal arguments. However, the conservative majority on the court and the novelty of the legal question surrounding bump stocks introduce some uncertainty.

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