Will Indonesia announce another export ban on palm oil or palm oil-based products in 2024?
25
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2025
39%
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In April 2022, Indonesia imposed a temporary export ban on palm oil and its derivatives to address domestic cooking oil shortages and price hikes. This happening again is a plausible candidate as one of the export bans concerning many liberal economists as countries employ more protectionist policies.

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Based on the latest information gathered:

  • Indonesian palm oil exports are expected to decrease by about 4% in 2024, mainly due to higher domestic demand for the vegetable oil as feedstock for biodiesel, while production growth remains modest​​.

  • The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) anticipates a rise in palm oil output by no more than 5% compared to 2023​​.

  • To ensure sufficient domestic supply, Indonesia is tightening its export rules for palm oil from January 1, 2024, by allowing fewer shipments overseas for every ton sold domestically​​.

Given this information, the likelihood of Indonesia announcing another export ban on palm oil or palm oil-based products in 2024 seems relatively low. The country is already implementing measures to balance domestic needs and exports without resorting to a full ban. However, unpredictable factors such as sudden changes in global market conditions, domestic policy shifts, or unforeseen production issues could affect this assessment.

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