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@FUTURESEARCH or @mods this can resolve YES

"On 14 June 2024, the ANC, the DA, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA), agreed to form a national unity government, with Cyril Ramaphosa being re-elected President of South Africa.[4][5]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election

Sold all my shares before "minority government -> Vote of no confidence against Cyril -> No President for 30 days -> Parliament dissolved and another election is held."

please clarify whether a minority government will be counted as coalition

Rules say "Will they win > 50% seats". The title says the opposite "will a coalition government be formed" (implies < 50% seats). Bad rules.

"Will a coalition be formed?" Is a different question from whether a party will get > 50% of the seats. Other possibilities - minority government (at least in the UK/Canada - you can have agreements to not vote against a party on key votes), and no coalition/government being formed.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 73%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55%, market is 73%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 74%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 74%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 74%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55%, market is 74%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 72%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 72%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 72%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 72%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 66%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 66%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 66%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 66%.