Will a coalition government be formed in South Africa following the 2024 general election?
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"South Africa faces a defining election" writes the Economist. Ever since the first post-apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress has held a majority of seats in the National Assembly. With the country deteriorating, will they win >50% of the seats needed to form a coalition?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election

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sold Ṁ149 YES

Sold all my shares before "minority government -> Vote of no confidence against Cyril -> No President for 30 days -> Parliament dissolved and another election is held."

please clarify whether a minority government will be counted as coalition

Rules say "Will they win > 50% seats". The title says the opposite "will a coalition government be formed" (implies < 50% seats). Bad rules.

"Will a coalition be formed?" Is a different question from whether a party will get > 50% of the seats. Other possibilities - minority government (at least in the UK/Canada - you can have agreements to not vote against a party on key votes), and no coalition/government being formed.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 73%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 73%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55%, market is 73%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 74%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 74%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 74%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55%, market is 74%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 72%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 80%, market is 72%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 72%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 72%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 75%, market is 66%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 66%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 66%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 66%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 85%, market is 66%.

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