Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
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3.9kṀ230kresolved Jan 1
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Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024.
DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time).
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CONTEXT:
In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A.
Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29
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Updated URL is https://manifold.markets/stats for those wondering. Looks fairly flat around 1k for the past month or two.
Oh there is actually one very important thing we need to clarify for this market.
Who counts as a DAU? I know you mention the number in the graph but even that is somewhat up for debate.
Currently we have a list of actions that are considered significant (anything that makes a change to the site's ecosystem in some way). @SG has decided that users only count as DAU if that make one of these significant actions. I agree that quantifying DAU this way is the most effective metric to use, but it does lower DAU from what it could be. Over the past month, on average 50.4% of logged in users who visit the site on a given day make a significant action. So if we changed the definition of DAU to include logged in lurkers it would double lol.