Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
resolved Jan 1
Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024. DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time). --- CONTEXT: In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A. Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29
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predicted YES

Where did the stats page go?

predicted YES

@cc6 hmmm, I dont see it in the about page anymore, where has it moved?

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius something something radical transparency


@MarcusAbramovitch Want more? I have limits at 3% and 4%.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall return ain't worth it

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Made some limit YES orders if anyone wants to recoup their losses.

sold Ṁ834 of YES

Not bailing fully, but guess it's time to adjust for more realistic odds.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Manifold, oh Manifold
A platform with ambition bold
But will it reach that magic goal
Or will its fate be something cold?

There is no chance but I wish.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Updated URL is https://manifold.markets/stats for those wondering. Looks fairly flat around 1k for the past month or two.

I kind of want to bid this way down as a hedge but also don't want to convey pessimism!

predicted YES
Oh there is actually one very important thing we need to clarify for this market. Who counts as a DAU? I know you mention the number in the graph but even that is somewhat up for debate. Currently we have a list of actions that are considered significant (anything that makes a change to the site's ecosystem in some way). @SG has decided that users only count as DAU if that make one of these significant actions. I agree that quantifying DAU this way is the most effective metric to use, but it does lower DAU from what it could be. Over the past month, on average 50.4% of logged in users who visit the site on a given day make a significant action. So if we changed the definition of DAU to include logged in lurkers it would double lol.
bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
I would consider it a failure on my own part if we weren't to get 10k DAU by the end of Q2 2023 lol
bought Ṁ96 of YES
If there's more than 10 unique betters today, I'll send 100 mana via Manalinks to whoever bets the most on this question today (7/11/2022)