Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?

Manifold•Manifold Business Future•Manifold User Retention•New Year's Resolutions 2024

123

443

Ṁ230K

Ṁ3.9K

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

ALL

Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024. DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time). --- CONTEXT: In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A. Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ8,063
2		Ṁ5,774
3		Ṁ3,363
4		Ṁ2,811
5		Ṁ1,939

15 Comments

83 Holders

1.6K Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

Where did the stats page go?

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius https://manifold.markets/stats

predicted YES

@cc6 hmmm, I dont see it in the about page anymore, where has it moved?

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius something something radical transparency

boughtṀ2,000NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Want more? I have limits at 3% and 4%.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall return ain't worth it

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Made some limit YES orders if anyone wants to recoup their losses.

sold Ṁ834 of YES

Not bailing fully, but guess it's time to adjust for more realistic odds.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Manifold, oh Manifold
A platform with ambition bold
But will it reach that magic goal
Or will its fate be something cold?

There is no chance but I wish.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Updated URL is https://manifold.markets/stats for those wondering. Looks fairly flat around 1k for the past month or two.

I kind of want to bid this way down as a hedge but also don't want to convey pessimism!

predicted YES

Oh there is actually one very important thing we need to clarify for this market. Who counts as a DAU? I know you mention the number in the graph but even that is somewhat up for debate. Currently we have a list of actions that are considered significant (anything that makes a change to the site's ecosystem in some way). @SG has decided that users only count as DAU if that make one of these significant actions. I agree that quantifying DAU this way is the most effective metric to use, but it does lower DAU from what it could be. Over the past month, on average 50.4% of logged in users who visit the site on a given day make a significant action. So if we changed the definition of DAU to include logged in lurkers it would double lol.