7
Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
FRCassarino avatar
FRC
107
closes 2024
8%
chance
Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024. DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time). --- CONTEXT: In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A. Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29
Manifold Business Future
Manifold User Retention
Predictions on Predictions
Sort by:
LucaMasters avatar
Luca Masterssold Ṁ834 of YES

Not bailing fully, but guess it's time to adjust for more realistic odds.

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of NO

Manifold, oh Manifold
A platform with ambition bold
But will it reach that magic goal
Or will its fate be something cold?

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingraham

There is no chance but I wish.

LucaMasters avatar
Luca Mastersbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Updated URL is https://manifold.markets/stats for those wondering. Looks fairly flat around 1k for the past month or two.

dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves

I kind of want to bid this way down as a hedge but also don't want to convey pessimism!

DavidChee avatar
SirSaltyis predicting YES at 71%
Oh there is actually one very important thing we need to clarify for this market. Who counts as a DAU? I know you mention the number in the graph but even that is somewhat up for debate. Currently we have a list of actions that are considered significant (anything that makes a change to the site's ecosystem in some way). @SG has decided that users only count as DAU if that make one of these significant actions. I agree that quantifying DAU this way is the most effective metric to use, but it does lower DAU from what it could be. Over the past month, on average 50.4% of logged in users who visit the site on a given day make a significant action. So if we changed the definition of DAU to include logged in lurkers it would double lol.
DavidChee avatar
SirSaltybought Ṁ1,000 of YES
I would consider it a failure on my own part if we weren't to get 10k DAU by the end of Q2 2023 lol
FRCassarino avatar
FRCbought Ṁ96 of YES
If there's more than 10 unique betters today, I'll send 100 mana via Manalinks to whoever bets the most on this question today (7/11/2022)

Related markets

itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?8%
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
Will Manifold hit 10,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?9%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 8000 Monthly Active Users in 2023?51%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users in 2023?31%
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?9%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 8600 Monthly Active Users in 2023?26%
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
Will Manifold hit 25,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?4%
itsTomekK avatarTomek K 🟡
Will Manifold hit 2,023 active daily users (7d avg) in 2023?26%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 8200 Monthly Active Users in 2023?27%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 8400 Monthly Active Users in 2023?27%
AmmonLam avatarAmmon Lam
Will Manifold Reach 8800 Monthly Active Users in 2023?36%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold have over 1000 Engaged Users by June 30th, 2023?10%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold have over 900 Engaged Users by July 31st, 2023?25%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold have over 1000 Engaged Users by July 31st, 2023?12%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold have over 900 Engaged Users by June 30th 2023?11%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold have over 850 Engaged Users by June 30th 2023?32%
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
Will Manifold break its current record of 2490 daily users by the end of 2023?40%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold reach 3000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st?5%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold reach 5000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st?4%
MarcusAbramovitch avatarMarcus Abramovitch
Will Manifold reach 2000 daily active users (7d average) by July 1st?7%