7
Will Manifold average >10k Daily Active Users before January 2024?
107
closes 2024
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if Manifold averages >10k Daily Active Users during a 2 week period before January 1st 2024.
DAU data will come from https://manifold.markets/analytics (or equivalent at the time).
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CONTEXT:
In their April Seed Round memo, Manifold thinks they need to show a 100x increase in DAU (~10k DAU) to successfully raise a Series A.
Manifold estimates they have ~1.5 years of Runway, which is why I picked the Jan 2024 timeframe. By their own estimation, they have around 1.5 years to reach these growth numbers to get further funding and not go under.
https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Markets-Seed-Round-Memo-9936d3f496084a8e913b10aa9f63854f#37544d88a806439cadc46057adf47d29
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Not bailing fully, but guess it's time to adjust for more realistic odds.

Manifold, oh Manifold
A platform with ambition bold
But will it reach that magic goal
Or will its fate be something cold?

Updated URL is https://manifold.markets/stats for those wondering. Looks fairly flat around 1k for the past month or two.

I kind of want to bid this way down as a hedge but also don't want to convey pessimism!

Oh there is actually one very important thing we need to clarify for this market.
Who counts as a DAU? I know you mention the number in the graph but even that is somewhat up for debate.
Currently we have a list of actions that are considered significant (anything that makes a change to the site's ecosystem in some way). @SG has decided that users only count as DAU if that make one of these significant actions. I agree that quantifying DAU this way is the most effective metric to use, but it does lower DAU from what it could be. Over the past month, on average 50.4% of logged in users who visit the site on a given day make a significant action. So if we changed the definition of DAU to include logged in lurkers it would double lol.

I would consider it a failure on my own part if we weren't to get 10k DAU by the end of Q2 2023 lol
If there's more than 10 unique betters today, I'll send 100 mana via Manalinks to whoever bets the most on this question today (7/11/2022)
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29 YES payouts
Ṁ27,835
Ṁ10,000
Ṁ3,052
Ṁ1,367
Ṁ600
Ṁ576
Ṁ308
Ṁ275
Ṁ212
Ṁ201
Ṁ164
Ṁ45
Ṁ35
Ṁ29
Ṁ21
49 NO payouts
Ṁ12,419
Ṁ11,252
Ṁ7,475
Ṁ6,920
Ṁ3,060
Ṁ2,386
Ṁ2,218
Ṁ2,208
Ṁ1,546
Ṁ1,376
Ṁ1,112
Ṁ1,061
Ṁ491
Ṁ437
Ṁ424
Ṁ363
Ṁ327
Ṁ262














































