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resolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES

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The contract has been signed by all sides, and I've handed in my resignation letter! This is a huge move for me, and it still feels unreal, but over the last couple of months my conviction that this is the right decision has been growing steadily. I'm super excited to join the team, and to help Manifold become something world-changing! Thanks to to James, Stephen and Austin for the opportunity, can't wait to get started!
predicted YES
@FRCassarino Congratulations!!
predicted YES
@FRCassarino Congratulations Fede, and welcome to the Manifold team! Can't wait to see how you will help us build a world-changing product :-)
@TedSuzman Thanks a lot!
@JamesGrugett We'll get it done! 😎
bought Ṁ25 of NO
50:1 is really good odds for "will I actually go through with a career change" even at this late stage.
I do feel like the resolution criteria is a bit ambiguous in when exactly I should resolve. "Will I quit my SWE Job at Meta/FB to work at Manifold Markets?" implies that I'll resolve as soon as I quit with the intention of joining Manifold, even if something unexpected happens in the interim period and I don't end up working here (my start date will be August 22). I'm still unsure on whether I should resolve this to YES right after I give notice at my job, or right after I stop working there (i.e 4 weeks later, once the notice period ends). I'm leaning towards the former, i.e resolving this to YES as soon as I sign the contract and give notice at my job (so presumably tomorrow). If anybody feels this isn't reasonable I'm open to hearing your thoughts.
predicted YES
For what it's worth, I also read it the former way, "Will I sign a job contract with Manifold" in broad terms
They’ve sent me the contract, and we’ve been going back and forward making a few amendments. I’m now happy with the current version and ready to sign it - just waiting for them to send me the Docusign version and I’m ready to sign. If that happens today I’ll give notice tomorrow, if not, the following day.
I'm waiting for them to draw up the contract, James said it'd be ready today by EOD.
Update: The founders extended an offer to me yesterday 😃 The offer looks good, its inline with what we had discussed and I'm happy with it. I just had a call with James in which I asked a few additional questions. They are gonna come back to me about some of them, relating to some specific details around the contract. If there's no surprises there, I'll likely accept the offer - but I'm awaiting for those details first. It's looking likely folks 😁
predicted YES
Looks like Fede's first feature landed 4 days ago — there are now daily/weekly/monthly leaderboards: https://manifold.markets/leaderboards It's a non-trivial feature, and the code seems pretty good, so it's a nice sign! Manifold's setup has a bit of a learning curve to it (as does any setup), and it seems like Fede's learning rate was pretty strong.
@TedSuzman Yea, for extra context, I finished the first couple of projects after a week or so - both the leaderboards and a Portfolio history in user profiles. Both features rely on caching past data, so we've just been waiting for data to fill in for a week or so before toggling them on fully. I'm now working on Badges for users, although I'll start working more sporadically now after finishing the main stuff. I just reached out to the founders to learn about what the next steps are if any, before they are ready to extend/decline-to-extend an offer.
Okay, so I finally started building some things for Manifold. I'll build out a few features that we've discussed, and they'll let me know If they extend an offer after that. I sent out my first PR yesterday, had some positive feedback from James: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/509
bought Ṁ600 of YES
Looked at the PR. Code quality looks good! I have a good feeling about this :D
bought Ṁ100 of YES
"I hope that we can hire him" -James during office hours
@RoboTeddy - Not much has happened as I’ve been on holiday. I’ve agreed to a different (shorter) interview process: - Build a ~10 hour feature in the Manifold website. - Do 3 technical interviews (1 hour). The first should happen sometime next week (when im back from holiday). I’m currently awaiting a response about the exact date.
bought Ṁ500 of YES
YES, because that's one less person at Facebook not working on prediction markets.
predicted YES
@FRCassarino Any updates?
predicted YES
Some reasons for "YES": The candidate: - Clearly is into prediction markets (c.f. this market, and his previous attempt at starting a prediction market question) - Seems quite willing to operate openly/in the public, in a way that seems like a cultural fit with the Manifold team - Seems very open-minded (e.g., most people are much more skeptical of NFTs when they first encounter them than displayed here: https://federicorcassarino.substack.com/p/the-map-and-territory-of-nft-art?s=r) - Is excited to dig in and complete some sample projects within the codebase - Writes lucidly (which in my experience correlates pretty well with engineering skill) Manifold seems interested in growing their team quickly. And offering a trial means they're pretty serious about this candidate, because trials are expensive to run (have to get someone set up, give them enough context, answer their questions, etc). I think the base rate for hiring someone out of a trial is maaybe ~50%, but in this case the candidate feels like an unusually good fit.
5/26/2022: Had a call with Stephen to make introductions. We discussed my technical background, and talked about the direction of the platform. On my request, It's looking like instead of an extended 4 week work trial, they might be willing to do a round of technical interviews. I've been looking at their codebase and I'm confident I can be productive there from the get-go
oops meant to add this tl;dr to the description
5/26/2022: Had a call with Stephen to make introductions. We discussed my technical background, and talked about the direction of the platform. I checked my employment contract yesterday, and found that I'll need to give 4 weeks notice if I do end up resigning. This would slow down things considerably. It'd mean a 4 week trial period part time, then the offer, and another 4 week part time period while I run down my notice. I don't think I could work 2 jobs for 8 weeks without being very burn out by the end. On my request, It's looking like instead of an extended 4 week work trial, they might be willing to do a round of technical interviews. This sounds great to me - but it does mean they'll base their decision on a smaller sample size, so do adjust your bets accordingly. I've been looking at their codebase and I'm confident I can be productive there from the get-go. ~50% of my current job is full-stack web development, and we share some of the same stack - React, Javascript + Flow (instead of Typescript). They chose an unconventional architecture (they run almost everything on the client side as opposed to a traditional MVC), but it seems fairly straightforward. I'll suggest the technical interviews to consist of tasks within their codebase.
bought Ṁ900 of YES
Seems about even now
5/24/2022: Agreed with Austin to start the Trial Period on June 13. From my side, I'm strongly leaning towards joining, whether I like the company culture during the trial period (plus agreeing on comp) will be what convinces me. From their side, It'll depend on how I do during the trial period.