Resolves to YES if FTX suspends user withdrawals for more than 7 days during 2022.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ806 | |
| 2 | Ṁ143 | |
| 3 | Ṁ124 | |
| 4 | Ṁ108 | |
| 5 | Ṁ104 |
This market still seems ambiguously worded to me — if it's meant to be "suspend [all] withdrawals," aren't some user withdrawals still ongoing, and will be for months, as users take out TRX? If so, 98% seems way too high.
If the wording of the question is "suspend [some] withdrawals," it gets more interesting, but also, withdrawals have probably been suspended for some users for all of FTX's history given that they have millions of users and withdrawal suspensions happen for more reasons than just liquidity crunches (ID verification, legal issues, etc.).
So I'm guessing what people are betting on is something like "suspend [many/most] withdrawals [due to liquidity crunch]," which would justify the current pricing, but is a kinda wishy-washy criterion.
They owe 9B, and their balance sheet is total garbage (marked at >100x their market caps, and were holding 5B of their own coin)
Also stand to lose ~50-100mm if Trump wins—not clear they even understand how to mark a derivative (this is not an asset…)
Supposedly had no CFO, no real board, head of compliance from a gambling site.
