Will FTX suspend withdrawals for more than a 7 day period in 2022?
64
220
1.3k
resolved Nov 30
Resolved
YES

Resolves to YES if FTX suspends user withdrawals for more than 7 days during 2022.

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Resolving this for Fede so user mana isn't locked up.

-David

predicted YES

I believe all withdrawals have been suspended since the 11th? This should resolve Yes right?

predicted NO

This market still seems ambiguously worded to me — if it's meant to be "suspend [all] withdrawals," aren't some user withdrawals still ongoing, and will be for months, as users take out TRX? If so, 98% seems way too high.

If the wording of the question is "suspend [some] withdrawals," it gets more interesting, but also, withdrawals have probably been suspended for some users for all of FTX's history given that they have millions of users and withdrawal suspensions happen for more reasons than just liquidity crunches (ID verification, legal issues, etc.).

So I'm guessing what people are betting on is something like "suspend [many/most] withdrawals [due to liquidity crunch]," which would justify the current pricing, but is a kinda wishy-washy criterion.

They owe 9B, and their balance sheet is total garbage (marked at >100x their market caps, and were holding 5B of their own coin)

Also stand to lose ~50-100mm if Trump wins—not clear they even understand how to mark a derivative (this is not an asset…)

Supposedly had no CFO, no real board, head of compliance from a gambling site.

sold Ṁ41 of YES

Related market

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES
bought Ṁ500 of YES

Apparently only TRX withdrawals are enabled right now, and TRX on FTX is trading at 20x other exchanges as everyone tries to get their funds out.

Does this count as withdrawals being suspended?

NFA but wouldn’t want any money in Solana defi

….

Conspiracy to commit fraud charges coming

Multiple exchanges down.

(delete Multiple exchanges down. —old comment about outages few days ago)

Riddle solved:

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