IF Manifold doesn't introduce real money trading, what will its Monthly Active Users be in Jan 1st 2024?
Jul 8
M$10 bet
MAU = Monthly active users, according to https://manifold.markets/analytics (or the closest equivalent statistic available at the time, picked at my discretion) By real money trading I mean that users can buy and trade with real money, and withdraw their winnings to their bank account. If it is introduced any time before Jan 1st 2024, the question resolves to N/A. If it is not introduced, the question will resolve to the MAU in Jan 1st 2024. What counts as "real money trading"? Any way to do this "counts", as long as it's actually used broadly by the userbase, and is setup or endorsed by Manifold. Examples that would count: -Manifold allows Mana to be bought and withdrawn into USD to your own bank account. -Manifold switches from Mana to a crypto token, that can be exchanged into USD at some exchange. Examples that wouldn't count: - Manifold gives cash prizes in tournaments. - Manifold allows donation to charities. - A couple of people try selling their Mana via ebay.
resolving to N/A and recreating with Log scale
Cool question! Might have been better with a log scale.

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