Resolution criteria
Valve has made no official announcement, no teaser, and no confirmation that Half-Life 3, or HLX, even exists. This market resolves based on what occurs during November 2025:
Announced: An official announcement from Valve confirming Half-Life 3 exists and will be released (via press release, social media, or official channels)
Trailer Released: An official trailer is publicly released by Valve
Game Released: The game becomes available for purchase/download on Steam or other official platforms
Nothing: None of the above occur by November 30, 2025
Resolution will be determined by official Valve communications and public availability on Steam or official storefronts.
Background
Half-Life 2 released in 2004, followed by Episode One in 2006 and Episode Two in 2007. Fans have waited over 20 years for a third iteration. HLX references have been appearing in Source 2 titles and are believed to be the codename for a single-player FPS title set in the Half-Life universe, most likely Half-Life 3. Recent reports from Valve insider Tyler McVicker have correctly hinted at several Source 2 engine updates and Half-Life: Alyx details before their announcements.
Considerations
Valve does not produce trailers early in development, instead creating them close to launch when the game is nearly finished or in final polishing phase. McVicker claims Valve will likely make the announcement "in a tweet," fitting Valve's tendency to avoid major industry events. Valve has a famously open-ended development process where things can get quickly dumped if they aren't developing correctly, so none of this guarantees a new game will come out.
Update 2025-11-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple events occur in November 2025 (e.g., both an announcement and a trailer release), both corresponding answer options will resolve YES.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple events occur in November 2025 (e.g., both an announcement and a trailer release), the market will resolve to the biggest outcome using this hierarchy: Game Released > Trailer Released > Announced
1,000People are also trading
@Eyesack this market is a dependent MC type.
Only one option can resolve.
It’d have to be an independent MC market to have multiple options resolve YES.
@Eyesack Yeah, I'd say N/A this market and make one with independent options. Announcement/trailer/game release aren't mutually exclusive.
@Eyesack might I suggest committing to one of:
split the resolution (e.g., 50% + 50% or 33% + 33% + 33%)
resolve to "biggest" outcome (release > trailer > announcement)
Or you can N/A, which reverses all trades. You get your subsidy back, traders get everything they spent (less loans). All profit and loss is reversed, and trader bonuses deducted. ~ As if it never existed ~ ✨ 🌈