Will any lead-apatite superconductor with Tc > 30K be found before 2025?

This question will resolve Yes if any lead apatite family material is found to be a superconductor at temperatures above 30K and ambient pressure before 2025.

The lead apatite family will be defined to include any material that:

  • Consists of at least 75% by mass of some combination of lead, oxygen, and phosphorous;

  • Contains at least 1 phosphorous atom per 3 lead atoms. (For comparison, LK-99 is 97.5% lead, oxygen, and phosphorous, with 2 phosphorous atoms per lead atom.);

  • Has an atomic atomic ratio of at least 1:1 Pb:Cu, and;

  • Is at least 10% lead by mass.

Resolution will be based on published, peer-reviewed results with published replications.

This question is intended to mirror the metaculus question:


The above definition of the lead apatite family is bad; suggestions very much welcome!

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

Tomorrow is the day for the Koreans to present at the APS conference.

Hyun Tak Kim says March 4 will be Room Temperature Superconductor day.

Roughly speaking, this question is an attempt to get at the question "is there anything interesting at all going on with LK-99, even if it isn't a room temperature superconductor?".

Some reports have LK-99 superconducting at around 100K: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192


Related question:

But that's a fairly narrow question. There are also questions as to what LK-99 is, and whether the proposed structure is correct. This is an attempt to write a question that is robust in the face of that potential confusion.

And it's possible that somehow the original authors found an interesting materials family, but that they got major details in their paper wrong. Perhaps someone else will find a related interesting material, such as with silver or gold doping instead of copper.

My hope is that if something interesting is going on, this question will trade higher than the main LK-99 question. If it's all a giant pile of mundane fraud and measurement error, they'll trade at similar levels.

@EvanDaniel it was trading lower!