On 2024-01-31, if there is a consensus on LK-99’s critical temperature, is it between 100K and 200K?
Basic
18
Ṁ1888
resolved Feb 22
Resolved
NO

A widely shared experimental result from Southeast University in China (https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192

) claims a critical temperature of 110K.

Is this measurement at all in the right ballpark?

Resolution criteria: a "consensus" is substantiated by:

  1. two non-retracted papers or preprints (each with at least one author who is a professor at a university in the global top 250 according to QS) that performed independent chemical characterization and electrical measurements, and agree on the critical temperature to within 5K,

  2. AND either

    (2a) a third such paper/preprint with independent measurements,

    OR

    (2b) a third such paper (without independent measurements, but with a top-university professor author) which cites both previous papers to substantiate a claim about LK-99's critical temperature.

If there is no consensus about LK-99's critical temperature by the resolution date, the market resolves as inconclusive.

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@davidad Is a consensus that it has no critical temperature a No resolution or an N/A resolution?

predictedNO

What if there is consensus that it has no critical temperature?

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