The first user to post nudes on Manifold.love will get...
30
518
820
resolved Dec 1
100%92%
Banned
0.6%
A Date
7%
Both
0.6%
Neither

If it's unclear who it is, first [link to] proof posted in the comments wins.

If they get banned this will remain open 1 month after the ban to await evidence of them having gotten a date along the way.

Date must be via Manifold.love, and not with a pre-existing partner.

If no [evidence of] such a profile by close time, will resolve N/A.

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No evidence of a date posted. The relevant market below is still unresolved, so "Banned" seems correct.

bought Ṁ10 of Banned YES

First person with nudes: NSFW to click: https://manifold.love/MikeFitzgerald

@case I believe this is actually the second instance, or at least the second I'm aware of. See comments below.

I believe this counts as both a nude and subsequent ban.

Now we just have to see if there is somehow also a manifold-related date.

bought Ṁ10 of Both YES

Lol you'll never believe who his only match was

bought Ṁ100 of Banned YES

bought Ṁ110 of Banned YES

Kazoo was already banned on manifold though?

@Joshua You should have seen the profile pic he was putting up on the Manifold dating!

Was it a nude?

@Joshua Oh yes papa!

  1. What happens if an exploit allows someone to change picture of other user?

  2. What happens if someone changes their picture back after it's been confirmed for this market but before Manifold admins see it?

@AnT Oh no, do I have to actually fully define this market? Uhh...

Exploits don't count. There are other ways to manipulate markets and/or win bounties with them. This is about fully consensual posting of nudes by and of the user.

I have no idea how to make this rule Goodhart-proof, but uh... It should be posted with the intent to get a date, and/or be left up for "a while". At the very least, if it's not up long enough for me to verify on manifold.love and there was no admin action associated, it probably doesn't count. But if someone posts a nude, and then a while later changes their mind about that being what they want on their profile? Totally counts.

I am hoping that people care more about their profiles than they do manipulating this market. If that ceases to be the case then this market probably ceases to be the funny shitpost it was intended as.

Don't go by my username as far as this market is concerned

What's the criteria on what a nude is? Anything bannable by a reasonable website (say Instagram), or will you only count genitals?

@CamillePerrin My gut reaction is "anything that OKCupid would ban", but Instagram works too. If there's a better way to write that, especially one that's appropriate and inclusive in the context of a large proportion of trans and nonbinary users, suggestions are very welcome.

Might as well point out that I'm asking about nudes of users, not pornbot spam or random porn profile pics of not-the-user.

Honestly I'm kinda crossing my fingers and hoping this market doesn't turn into a definitional mess.