How many reasons was Sam Altman fired for?
Basic
17
12k
resolved Mar 3
100%99.5%
6-8
0.0%
0
0.0%
1
0.0%
2
0.0%
3
0.0%
4-5
0.1%
9-13
0.2%
14-21
0.1%
22-34
0.0%
35-55
0.0%
56+

This is a derivative market for the main market:

/sophiawisdom/why-was-sam-altman-fired

It resolves to the range that includes the number of answers on the main market that resolve true.

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bought Ṁ500 6-8 YES

@EvanDaniel I count 7.3 (7x YES + 1x 30%)

@BenjaminCosman I agree. Apologies for the delay resolving.

1

‘We won’t know, within the next year’ is at 35%

A tricky part of this market is that there are many answers that are very similar (e.g. "fundamental disagreement over safety" and "fundamental disagreement over safety (board wanted more safety)") and so the number of reasons depends significantly on what people put up as answers

What if some number of answers resolve to a probability between 50% and 100%?

@Eliza

Anything that I judge to be a significant factor for why Sam Altman was fired will resolve true.

That doesn't sound like we're looking at a mixed result PROB resolution.

But why not... N/A resolutions are clearly not "true", so they count for zero. Hard cutoffs always make markets messy, so we'll avoid those. In the spirit of "any fast decision is better than no decision":

Add up all the fractions. That's the resolution count. If it's between two buckets, those two buckets will resolve in linear proportion. So if we get three options at 100%, 90%, 80%, that totals 2.7. "2" will resolve at 30% and "3" at 70%.

Hopefully that's linear enough that, if a hypothetical arb bot was trying to use this market, the problems would all be attributable to the mess that is the underlying.

And after all, this market is really trying to ask "how much of a mess is the underlying?".