I was unable to find anything even remotely like a useful data source. Seems like the traders didn't either. Alas, it seemed interesting, but I think N/A is probably best.

@traders Has anyone managed to find a good data source for this? I haven't. I'm getting tempted to resolve N/A on that basis; please let me know whether that sounds like a good idea or a bad one...

This looks like I might end up having to do a lot more judgment than I'd hoped for. I've sold my positions and won't be trading in this market further.

As best I can tell, the current confirmed count from credible sources is maybe two. I've looked and will keep looking. I see several videos of attacks on armored vehicles, but not much aftermath. I think this thread shows D9 armored bulldozer (which I think counts as "armored") and a "trophy APS defeat" which I think means a lost vehicle. I'm hoping I can find someone credible keeping count so I don't have to interpret each as whether it's a "loss".

@EvanDaniel It sounds like our start date is the sustained invasion of Gaza. Two clarifiers: do disabled (not destroyed) vehicles count as losses? I think they should. And would a vehicle that has retreated out of Gaza or otherwise been killed in a counteroffensive count?

@Panfilo My favorite would be to find something analogous to this list of Russian losses. I think those definitions make sense. So disabled, abandoned, and captured vehicles count. If we can find something like that I plan to defer to it entirely, rather than making my own judgment calls. (With the caveat that the final number will likely end up different than such a source reports since this market won't include vehicles lost before the ground invasion.)

As for what counts, my inclination is to find the best answer that lines up with the forecast that a "ground invasion will go poorly". So I think if retreating vehicles are destroyed outside Gaza, that counts. If the battle front shifts outside of Gaza, that counts. What doesn't count is stuff destroyed before the start of the invasion. I'd like to not include whatever happens on the Lebanon / Hezbollah front, if the data supports that approach.

Note that we're not counting all losses. In particular:

Merkava MK.3s, & MK.4s were used in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war. 15 were either destroyed or damaged in the first day of war (of which destroyed: 4, captured: 10, damaged: 1).

These are clearly not part of a ground invasion or offensive. (Quote from Wikipedia.)

Exactly when and where the armored vehicles were lost may require some care to figure out; I'll do my best, help is appreciated.

This is not a conditional because the ground offensive has already begun and a clear metric for whether a ground offensive happens is tricky. If someone wants to make the market for the prerequisite, or suggest it, I'm happy to make the conditional or both if that would be helpful.

If the higher end of this range has nontrivial probability and there's trading volume, I'll add additional options as needed.