By when will there be an unresupplied crewed spacecraft flight longer than 150 days?
6
Ṁ1kṀ1.7k2040
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
Before 2030
24%
Before 2032
41%
Before 2035
53%
Before 2040
Not including ISRU.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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For context, 150 days is ~5 months. The ISS generally aims to have ≥6 months of supplies on board. The longest gap between visiting spacecraft is 107 days (~3.5 months), between STS-108 and Progress M1-8 (according to AI, I didn't fact check). I don't expect ISS to deliberately break that record.
So this market will most likely resolve to the first crewed trip to Mars.
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