Will the main LK-99 market resolve YES or NO (not NA)? | Manifold

Will the main LK-99 market resolve YES or NO (not NA)?

superconductivity LK-99 LK-99 Derivative Markets

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Jan 3

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YES if this market resolves clearly 100% YES or NO

No if it resolves NA or some other numerical or future option which isn't YES or NO.

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

36% chance. Preprint here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 Companion paper here with description of synthesis: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Update 2023-07-27: Pasting my comment on resultion criteria We’re clearly all here because a) it’s fun, and b) we’re interested in room temperature s…

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What about a PROB resolution?

predicts YES

@jgyou answered in desc. Anything other than YES or NO on the main market makes this market resolves NO

predicts YES

@StrayClimb reading comprehension failure on my part 🤦‍♂️

predicts NO

I love this question.

On the one hand, if that market resolves N/A it would be very bad for manifold.

On the other, dispassionately it looks more and more there's a realistic possibility it should.

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