Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a prison sentence of over 44 years?
resolved Mar 28

Close date updated to 2024-01-26 4:59 pm

Close date updated to 2025-12-26 3:59 pm

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Manifold seems pretty confident that it'll be between 44 and 50 years...

From the Federal sentencing guidelines: https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manual/2021/GLMFull.pdf

- Per section 3D (multiple counts), counts will be grouped (all involved a common scheme).

- Per section 3D, with 5 units of financial crimes, 5 levels of severity will be added.

- The base count, wire fraud, has a base severity of 7.

- Due to the amounts of money involved, 24 (fraud with damages >$64M) to 30 (fraud with damages >$550M) levels of severity are added.

- There are more than 10 victims, so add 2 levels of severity. If there were more than 25 victims with significant financial hardship, we would add 4 more levels of severity.

- There are more than $1M in gross receipts from a fianancial insitution, maybe? If so, add 2.

- One of the counts is conspiracy to commit securities fraud. Violations of securities law add 4 levels of severity.

- SBF is the manager or leader of an extensive fraud: add 4 levels of severity (under section 3B1.1).

The sum is minimum 5+7+24+2+4+4 = 46, maximum 5+7+30+6+2+4+4 = 58.

- Anything above a sentencing level of 43 has a minimum sentence of "life", which the market creator has commented will count as greater than any fixed amount of time.

Accordingly, the value of this market should be set roughly by the probability that SBF will be alive come sentencing, which is about 95%, per the SBF "Epstein" market.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 64% to 69%

@Ernie Just to clarify: a sentence of "life" will result in "YES", for all these markets?

predicted YES

@brp yes life is considered to be a very long time. From what I've read at the federal level the only way out of it is to receive a commutation or pardon. Or for the usgov to fail or be reformed.

predicted NO

@Ernie You think life is a long time? Wait until you hear about eternal damnation!

predicted YES

Wow the biggest YES holder is me with only 400. Seems wrong

@Ernie He didn’t spend lavishly on himself per Se and he might also kill himself. He could also arrange for a universal deal with his other charges. These are reasons to be cautious.

predicted NO

@Ernie Shkreli Wagieacc said 20-30 likely, I respect the expertise

predicted YES

@CamillePerrin hmm yeah. He's just totally unreformed. I enjoyed the Shkreli analysis too.

If he drowns or something to that effect, market is unresolved, yes?

Or would the market resolve to NO?

predicted NO

@SiriKhalsa NO would be my plan in that situation. I try to avoid NAs.

predicted NO

@Ernie Wouldn’t that depend on when he dies? If he dies after sentencing there’s no reason to resolve NO. Unless you’re asking about time served.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon oh of course. But in that case as soon as he was sentenced, this would have been resolved already.

predicted NO

Madoff got 150, so seems more likely than not

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