Manifold will use signals more effectively as a way to show a market:

Background Signal summary

Signals to show a market:

• Global random users like to click through and like to bet

• People who like this topic, like to click through and bet

• People they follow are betting (and tell them this (7 people you follow are betting here)

• Their followers are betting (and tell them this, like "4 of your followers have a position here, but you don't!")

• Someone they know has changed position in a market ("You hold YES but your friend X just sold their YES position and is now a big NO holder! whoah, what's going on???")

• Flurry of new bets just showed up on the market

• A bunch of people just changed overall position (YES<=>NO).

Signals not to show a market:

• They have ignored the card before

• They have been on the market page before

• They have been on the market page before and didn't bet

• They have been on the market page before and did bet

Use of these comes in two ways: simple - use global conversion rates. complex: just limited to topics the user cares about, or users like them or some other ML model. Noa knows about this.

This market specifically is YES if:

• manifold shows creators conversion rates and also uses it as a component of what to show users, either globally or scoped to that user. We will know this if it's in an update on the discord, by eoy 2024