Will anyone be bitten by a poisonous snake in the USA in Dec 2023
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resolved Jan 11
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YES

Minimum requirement is having had to go to the hospital from the poison.

Note: this market is a demonstration of how I judge. Despite what biologists and pedants say, the phrase "poisonous snake" doesn't only mean "A snake whose meat is poisoned". It also means a snake which can poison you to death with his bite or his spit etc. Every 9 year old native English speaker knows this whether or not a biologist far away has later invented the distinction between venemous and poisonous, which is also useful in certain contexts.

Even still there is NO superiority in the supposedly more exact or scientific term simply because it's more formal. A simple question about poisonous snake bites has a simple answer, which is very likely yes, since that's what everyone would say to it in natural conversation.

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https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/more-snake-bites-in-2023-for-florida-than-in-previous-years

searched a bit and this seems to be someone who was bitten by a rattlesnake in early dec in florida; article came out dec 5th and doesn't say the exact time of the bite

bought Ṁ180 of YES

From what data source will you judge this? Data will presumably eventually be available somewhere. From what I can tell, it's practically guaranteed to actually happen.

Snake bites are extremely seasonal, but in 2016, 267 people in the US attended emergency departments for snake bites in winter, and 50 were admitted [1]. Most of December isn't even winter yet [2], let alone the coldest part.

[1] https://tsaco.bmj.com/content/4/1/e000374, see Table 1 (click to expand)

[2] By the definition used in the US, if you're from a seasons-start-on-the-first-day-of-the-month country and are confused. It turns out most countries use the solstices/equinoxes to delineate seasons, and we're in the minority using the first of the month.

@chrisjbillington lol uh oh. Well, I can have an expansive view of the US to include territories, Guam etc.

This market has been a pretty obvious demonstration of anti-legalism in judging the whole time. It would be interesting if nobody actually goes to the hospital, and I will do a search online for local news articles mentioning cases at the time. But the standard of proof isn't going to be the usual wash post/economist, because the incidents are not significant enough

predicted YES

@Ernie I was a little confused by your comment and realised parts of mine might have been confusing. Just in case: The footnote about when seasons start is directed at Australians and New Zealanders, and possibly others, for whom seasons start on the first of the month, they (we - I'm one of them) are often unaware that that's not how it works elsewhere, so a statement like "Most of December isn't winter" would not compute.

Just part of establishing that although winter snake bite numbers are low, December probably won't be quite as low.

Why uh-oh?

And you're mentioning the expansive view of "the US" because it implies more possible snake bites (in some places with warmer weather)?

Sorry if I'm a bit thick.

@chrisjbillington ah okay I think we're on the same page here. Very glad that hospitals are good at treating people and hope that they are located them in areas where many people need them.

Fake propaganda

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Seems like the poison glands of a venomous snake would be poisonous anyway?

@MartinRandall true, although I am not sure snake eaters usually eat that part of the snake

boughtṀ5NO

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