Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2026?
Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2026?
56
1kṀ18k2027
2%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, Young-Wan Kwon, Hyun-Tak Kim, Sungyeon Im, SooMin An, Keun Ho Auh
Any of them win nobel prize before 2026
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
66% chance
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
81% chance
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?
50% chance
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
1% chance
If Nobel prize for LK-99 authors, who will be the third person to win the prize?
Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers excluding w&m prof speak at int'l conf (not APL) by end 2030?
50% chance
Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?
4% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
5% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
10% chance