No if no known child born by end of 2040
No history of being bi gay or trans
@WilliamEhlhardt long term conditonals on things that are rare in the first place are tough. I've imagined it's more fun to know you'll get some result rather than NA after all that time. Open to discussion for future markets though!
@StrayClimb In my case, I bet a bunch on YES before catching this detail in the description, and I regret it. This is of course my mistake to deal with, but I imagine it's a common one.
If you're not going the N/A route, maybe change the title to "Aella will have a child, and the identity of the father will be a straight male"? This makes it clear that it's not a bet on the conditional probability but the joint one.
@WilliamEhlhardt I made the same mistake. This does feel like it borders on misrepresentation.