2
50
140
2032
50%
Elon Mentions Catherine's Pakaluk's book "Hannah's Children" or the phrase "Birth Dearth" by mid 2024 in an unambiguous way
50%
Catherin Pakaluk appears on Dwarkesh, Samo Burja, Kaschuta, Louise Perry, Rogan, or Lex Fridman's podcast by EOY 2024
50%
Catherin Pakaluk attends a manifold event by EOY 2025
48%
Will a US president ever "urge" Americans to have children by mid 2029

I intend to add more markets as time goes by on this subject.

Also:

Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?

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Can we get "Tax levied on people without children"? It's already a thing in some countries (never very high, but still) for retirement funding.

Also in the same vein of government intervention : "Child tax credit (or similar cash-for-children program) runs for >7 years" (fineprint: at the same or better inflation-adjusted payment level) ">10 state have public, statewide preschool system", maybe even "American two child policy (significant discrimination against single child, and/or parent thereof, that does not apply if 2 or more children)"

@CamillePerrin yeah I'm thinking about this a lot so may up adding tons

@Ernie in general it seems better in many cases to create mc markets like this

The US map in the AI generated image is surprisingly accurate

@bohaska yeah I think it's memorized. There must be thousands of them exactly the same in the training. It's hard to even get it to vary the map at all