Still counts even if the office is renamed, etc. that is, he will be leader of the US at that point (which is later than the rules at market creation time would allow). It's about whether he's leader of govt at that point and in control of the white house.

Can NO early if he's clearly dead or out of office, eg in jail or not allowed into the white house. Short delegations of power do not trigger NO if done for normal medical reasons or similar. Otherwise, we won't NO early even if he seems to be complying with the rules to leave as normal.

If he's elsewhere and not in control of the official govt apparatus and there is another candidate who won the 2028 election and has more visible control of DC and the white house then regardless of what Trump says, he'll still count as being out.