Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the official status of Donald Trump on November 4, 2027, at 12:00 AM Eastern Time (ET).

Exactly one of the following options will resolve YES, and all other options will resolve NO:

• In Office: Donald Trump is the sitting President of the United States.

• Out of Office due to death: Donald Trump is no longer in office, and his departure was caused by his death.

• Out of Office due to removal: Donald Trump is no longer in office, and his departure was due to conviction following impeachment by the Senate or permanent removal via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

• Out of Office due to resignation: Donald Trump is no longer in office, and his departure was due to voluntary resignation.

Resolution Details:

• The official source of truth will be the White House website and announcements from reputable national news outlets (such as the Associated Press or Reuters).

• If Donald Trump has temporarily transferred power to the Vice President (e.g., under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment for a medical procedure) but remains the official President, this will resolve as In Office.

• If Donald Trump is no longer in office due to an unforeseen constitutional or political event that does not cleanly fit death, removal, or resignation, the creator will resolve to the option that reflects the consensus of constitutional scholars and major news outlets.

Background

Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025. His second term is constitutionally scheduled to end on January 20, 2029. Because the 22nd Amendment limits individuals to serving two presidential terms, he is ineligible to run for re-election in 2028. This market tracks whether he will remain in office past November 3, 2027—exactly one year after the 2026 mid-term elections—or if he will have vacated the presidency early.

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