The Economist "Which countries did best in 2024" results megamarket (MC UL, 71 in total)
7
2.8kṀ1307
resolved Dec 18
Resolved
YES
Spain [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]
Resolved
YES
Top country is in Europe
Resolved
YES
Top 2 countries are not in Europe
Resolved
YES
At least 3 non-European countries are in top 10
Resolved
YES
An Asian country appears in the top 10
Resolved
YES
South American country appears in top 10
Resolved
YES
Australia beats New Zealand
Resolved
YES
Israel beats (Iran and Saudi and Turkey)
Resolved
YES
Germany beats France
Resolved
YES
Netherlands beats Belgium
Resolved
YES
USA Beats Britain
Resolved
YES
Chile beats Argentina
Resolved
YES
The top country is not Denmark and not Greece
Resolved
YES
South Korea beats Japan
Resolved
YES
Traditionally Christian country will be #1
Resolved
YES
Any majority non-Christian country in top 10?
Resolved
YES
EU [score = 5% * number of EU members on the list]
Resolved
YES
Europe has the most countries in the top 10
Resolved
90%
Ireland [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]
Resolved
60%
Israel [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]

Summary

For the last few years, in late December or early January, the Economist usually releases a chart with a title something like "which countries did the best".

Types of markets

Ranking

Above, there are multiple types of options. The first, type is like this:

  • Denmark [0% for 11th, 10% for 10th, 100% for 1st]

  • This means that the first 10 places will be scored, counting down 100% to 0%.

  • Ties resolve with the nominal value (8=, 8= => 80% for both)

A vs B

Another type is "A vs B" markets; these resolve by whether A will beat B. If A wins, 100%. If B wins, 0%. If they tie, then 50%. This is based on the ranking, and note that the Economist includes ties (in 2023, designated by a sequence of rank numbers such as "8=, 8=, 10=" which means there were two countries tied for 8th, to preserve logic, therefore 9th was skipped. If A appears in the list, and B doesn't A wins. If neither appears, then NA.

A vs B win margin

For these, we look at how many places ahead A is. If tied or behind or missing, score is 0%. If A is ahead by 1 place (for example, 1st vs 2nd place) then 10%. If by 10 or more places, score is 100%.

Best in region

Regions are defined based on this map:

So the regions are

  • North America

  • South America (including South America and the Carribean)

  • Africa

  • Middle East

  • Europe

  • Asia

  • Oceania (Oz NZ and pacific island nations)

Details on data

This chart has included factors like the following, but with some variations:

  • GDP

  • Household income per person

  • Share Prices

  • Investment

  • Public Debt to GDP Ratio

  • Core Prices

  • Employment

  • Inflation Breadth

Historical Results

Combined:

2021 results: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/which-economies-have-done-best-and-worst-during-the-pandemic/21806917

2022 results: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/12/18/2022s-unlikely-economic-winners

2023 results:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/17/which-economy-did-best-in-2023

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LMK if you have questions/concerns, & I can re-resolve. Thanks for playing!

Given that all their lists seem based to be drawn from OECD countries there are some easy responses.

Don’t they ever list any African countries?

@NicoDelon yeah they don't list China either. It could be lack of data they trust?

@Ernie It seems to be restricted to OECD countries.

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