This is a hard core well defined market.
Names that count, with symbolic regex
GPT-4.5
gpt-4.5 (we ignore case)
GPT-4.5[a-z]{1,1} (single character suffixes allowed)
GPT-4.5[other single symbols]{1,1}, e.g. gpt-4.5[smiley face emoji]
ignoring case, so gpt-4.5 would also count, as would GpT-4.5X
gpt-4.5 (where the - is a special rare "unicode dash") and similar. These count because for the human perception system, they still appear to be "gpt-4.5"
gpt-4.5, but they tell us that it's pronounced gpt-fawty-five. This counts because the text is still gpt-4.5
Things that would not count
gpt-45 (no dot)
GPT45 (no dash)
GPT4-5 (wrong dash location)
gpt-445 (extra stuff)
gpt-4.55 (yes, its an extra char, but it appears to break the required "4.5" as the numerical part)
gpt-5
gpt-5.4
Unlike my other markets, this is a hard core market where I'm going to try to judge based on predefined rules as much as possible.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ481 | |
2 | Ṁ395 | |
3 | Ṁ309 | |
4 | Ṁ118 | |
5 | Ṁ68 |
It would be so funny if you closed this market on July 1st, and then on July 2nd, before 12pm in this market's timezone, OpenAI releases "GPT-4.5" - and then you have to have a debate about the unclear semantics of "mid 2025."
Not at all likely to actually be a problem, but it would be very funny if it happened anyway.
@Ernie Hmm, did I figure it wrong? I think ~182.5 days into 2025 falls roughly on July 2nd around noon.
https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-exact-halfway-point-of-the-year
(Some people discussing it here.)
"At the end of the 6th month of 2025" also works for "mid."