OpenAI releases a model unquestionably named "GPT-4.5" or "GPT-4.5x" (where X varies) by mid 2025, hardcore legalism arc
14
88
1k
2025
16%
chance

This is a hard core well defined market.

Names that count, with symbolic regex

  • GPT-4.5

  • gpt-4.5 (we ignore case)

  • GPT-4.5[a-z]{1,1} (single character suffixes allowed)

  • GPT-4.5[other single symbols]{1,1}, e.g. gpt-4.5[smiley face emoji]

  • ignoring case, so gpt-4.5 would also count, as would GpT-4.5X

  • gpt-4.5 (where the - is a special rare "unicode dash") and similar. These count because for the human perception system, they still appear to be "gpt-4.5"

  • gpt-4.5, but they tell us that it's pronounced gpt-fawty-five. This counts because the text is still gpt-4.5

Things that would not count

  • gpt-45 (no dot)

  • GPT45 (no dash)

  • GPT4-5 (wrong dash location)

  • gpt-445 (extra stuff)

  • gpt-4.55 (yes, its an extra char, but it appears to break the required "4.5" as the numerical part)

  • gpt-5

  • gpt-5.4

Unlike my other markets, this is a hard core market where I'm going to try to judge based on predefined rules as much as possible.

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It would be so funny if you closed this market on July 1st, and then on July 2nd, before 12pm in this market's timezone, OpenAI releases "GPT-4.5" - and then you have to have a debate about the unclear semantics of "mid 2025."

Not at all likely to actually be a problem, but it would be very funny if it happened anyway.

@NevinWetherill mid 2025 is exactly the end of the last day of June

@Ernie Hmm, did I figure it wrong? I think ~182.5 days into 2025 falls roughly on July 2nd around noon.

https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-exact-halfway-point-of-the-year

(Some people discussing it here.)

"At the end of the 6th month of 2025" also works for "mid."

@NevinWetherill I go by the quarter and half system which match month endings. Ie q1+q2=h1

seems roughly equally likely as it ever did, but was never that likely

reposted

let's go guys, come on openai, release gpt-4.5