
Sam Altman has suggested that "GPT-Next" may not be called GPT-5 at all.
A GPT-4.5 or any other model prior to "GPT-Next" won't count.
This market resolves based on the fifth major iteration.
If "GPT-5" includes multiple models, as long as at least one meets the YES criteria, it resolves to YES.
This market will resolve when "GPT-Next" from OpenAI is released and accessible via API. Even if the official name is known prior to release, it won't be resolved before.
A release here means "accessible to some users outside of OpenAI with no waitlist and no special criteria to be chosen" (e.g., general rollout).
Resolves as YES:
The official model name (as in the API) contains the string "GPT-5" (case insensitive) explicitly. So, something like "GPT-5" or "GPT-5-Supernova" is YES.
Resolves as NO:
The YES criteria are not met. So, something like "GPT-Supernova-5" or "Eucalypt" is NO.
OpenAI doesn't release "GPT-Next" before 2026.
OpenAI dissolves (rebranding with another name doesn't count).
OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.
86 percent is insanely high, no? Given that Altman explicitly said he doesn’t want name gpt5.
Also i guess gpt-4.5 doesn’t count as a “major model iteration”?
agree 86% was high, but I think 3% is too low. I'll buy YES in larger quantity around 15% if anyone's interested