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MANIFOLD
New CEO at three of 13 top companies by April 1 2025
12
Ṁ190Ṁ2k
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
NO

There will be a new CEO in place in at least three of these companies by April 1 2025.

  • Facebook (Meta)

  • Google (Alphabet)

  • Microsoft

  • Amazon

  • IBM

  • NVidia

  • Tesla

  • Netflix

  • Snapchat

  • Uber

  • Airbnb

  • Dropbox

  • LinkedIn

Announcements of future changes don't count. The new CEO needs to have taken on the role by the due date.

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Elon musk
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@Ernie Resolves NO

import numpy as np

probs_for_one_year = np.array([5, 10, 9, 14, 8, 4, 6, 8, 15, 4, 4, 7 ])/100
in_next_two_years = probs_for_one_year+((1-probs_for_one_year)*probs_for_one_year)

res = []
for _ in range(300000):
    sample = (np.random.random(in_next_two_years.shape) < in_next_two_years).sum() >= 3
    res.append(sample)
np.mean(res)
predictedNO

Returns .26

After some thought updated probs to
[4, 15, 8, 20, 12, 6, 20, 15, 15, 6, 6, 12]

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vzgzbLqGEuiA5EougVrxB2AJe4RvIFXwdFluiik8nVs/edit

@NoaNabeshima this is kind of like a Fermi calculation. Maybe could be improved by evaluating distributions rather than point values?

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