Musk visits white house if Trump wins. Or doesn't visit if Harris wins, by mid 2025
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Plus
39
Ṁ11k
Jul 1
96%
chance

This is a double conditional so it should be possible to bet without worrying

The claim is both that:

  • If Trump wins Elon will visit the white house

  • If Harris wins Elon will not visit white house

The time period begins when either Harris or Trump assumes office, and ends either early if a visit happens, or at end of claim period June 30 2025.

Any visit must be confirmed to have happened officially by the white house, or by a photograph, or by a major us newspaper such as the la times, wash post, etc, excluding nyt.

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bought Ṁ947 YES

@elongatedmuskrat close but doesn't match the judgement criteria.

@Ernie what about https://abc7news.com/live-updates/trump-presidential-inauguration-2025-live-updates-president-elect-donald-set-take-office/15807227/entry/15820690/

If you scroll down, according to sources he was spotted in the West Wing. May not be official enough yet though

@elongatedmuskrat at this rate it'll be clear soon. I did specify a fairly fixed set of sources. If the market ended now you'd already have a good chance. Given that we have a bit of time and clear no doubt resolution seems likely, I'd prefer to wait for that.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Ernie He was confirmed to have gone but it was actually hours before Trump assumed office I believe.

Thinking about this. Maybe we could call this type of question a "polarization test" it's a conditional but has both arms in one, just with the evaluations flipped.

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