
Musk alive and humans have been to mars or him not alive and they haven't, due mid 2045
3
1kṀ1452045
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Mars test definition:
At least one human has been alive on the surface (or underground) of Mars for at least 3 days. Point is, not in orbit and also conscious, living, physically embodied as a human being
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
48% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2034?
14% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?
37% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2041?
41% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2043?
48% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2042?
44% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?
52% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before 2045?
55% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2040?
56% chance
Will Elon Musk be alive through the end of 2050?
60% chance