The values refer to the price of the main LK-99 market here:
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
The claim is that the price will go to or under 5% at least momentarily in August
EDIT: title says "under" so we interpret that as meaing price <5%, NOT <=5%. Sorry for the confusion.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ847 | |
| 2 | Ṁ842 | |
| 3 | Ṁ317 | |
| 4 | Ṁ105 | |
| 5 | Ṁ97 |
@StrayClimb If it can be shown that the market fell to e.g. 4.9%, will that be sufficient to resolve YES, or do you need the rounded-to-an-integer price shown on the page itself to be 4% or less?
The number on the page is rounded, but the actual unrounded price is accessible via the API, or (normally) just by zooming in on the profit graph - though the latter is bit buggy at the moment.
@chrisjbillington yes, how do we usually resolve this? Being able to get the exact price would reduce potential damage done to bettors here from before the clarification was added. I think that's a good solution.
@StrayClimb To see the exact current price you can go to e.g. https://manifold.markets/api/v0/slug/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre and ctrl-f for "probability". To get the price history is a also not hard, if it comes down to that at market close let me know and I can provide a script anyone can use to verify.
Normally zooming in on the profit graph is sufficient, but its y axis gets messed up when zoomed in at the moment.
@ShadowyZephyr Thanks, figuring this out in above comment. Would you be okay w/resolving based on <5%, but using the exact API price? That way there's only a single point of conflict between title / desc, in floating space, and it's very unlikely to matter.