Caroline Ellison - How many years in her sentence?
800
Jun 2
17%
None at all
12%
At least 1 day up to <1y
9%
1y to <2y
8%
4y to <5y
8%
3y to <4y
8%
2y to <3y
6%
6y to <7y
5%
13y-<17y
5%
5y to <6y
5%
7y to <8y
5%
8-<10y
5%
10y-<13y
3%
17y+

How many years in prison will she get?

This is about the exact amount of time she is sentenced to, regardless of time served. i.e. if she gets "5 months which means no additional time since she's got time served" the result will treated as 5 months

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bought Ṁ30 None at all YES

(My bet is an arb, and does not reflect my belief.)

okay, going with her raw sentence.

bought Ṁ100 of None at all NO

I think it makes sense to focus on what is in the sentence - discounting time served means the market now combines a) predictions about how long the trial will take until sentencing and b) the actual setence.