A child of Elon Musk will hold high political office through 2050
A child of Elon Musk will hold high political office through 2050
3
90Ṁ40
2051
28%
chance

High will be evaluated for any country based on this is scale, regardless of country size or new/oldness. For other countries or future political systems, we will attempt to map their system into this, comparing based on size of polity (as a percentage of the nation), power, esteem, etc

High to low

  • President

  • Senator

  • State governor

  • Congress

  • Major city mayor

  • Supreme court justice

  • Above here is high, below here doesn't qualify

  • Head of a major federal agency

  • Presidential cabinet member

Musk Family
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
1mo

Most cabinet members are far more important (and politically desirable) than "major city mayor" or US reps. Also, what about VP?

Secretary of State is more important and prestigious than every mayor in the country, bar none (not to mention 4th in the presidential succession). Basically every other cabinet level official is probably more prestigious and important than any member of congress outside leadership and every mayor except for NYC.

I mean, when I was a kid, the Governor of AZ gave up her position to become the Secretary of Homeland Security!!! Any member of congress would happily give up their position to become even the lowliest cabinet-level official.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules