A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029
6
110Ṁ167
2029
72%
chance

There will be a test of a biomarker which meaningfully correlates with parkinson's progression for at least a signficant subset (>10% of those diagnosed clinically) of people with Parkinson's disease in the US before 2029

examples: Patient has classic non-genetic PD from a clinical diagnosis based on symptoms (rigidity, etc.). There will be a test which they can take which shows the severity of the disease, and which when given repeatedly can be used to measure how much or less the disease has progressed

Parkinson's Disease
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
bought Ṁ25 NO5mo

% too high I'm afraid. So far the available test can diagnose early (alpha synclein assays and datscan) and maybe predict the people most at risk but there's no evidence that they correlate with the progression of the disease yet (unless you really significantly decline, for instance become demented).

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease by 2028
95% chance
Biological test for early detection of Parkinson's Disease before 2031
96% chance
Will the FDA approve a disease-modifying treatment for Parkinson's disease before 2029?
58% chance
Will there be a treatment to stop Parkinson's progression in at least 10% of US patients by mid 2028
18% chance
Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026?
9% chance
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in EU on May 1 2026?
58% chance
A Nobel prize in medicine award statement mentions Parkinson's disease before 2037
54% chance
Will Parkinson's be curable by 2028
5% chance
Will there be an FDA approved cure for Parkinson's Disease by EOY 2032?
54% chance
Will Bing diagnose Parkinson's disease in the EU on May 1 2035?
91% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy