Will Joe Biden's poor health prevent his nomination at the 2024 Democratic Convention?
16
49
330
Nov 5
11%
chance

As of 26 Feb 2023, the market "Will Joe Biden run for President" (https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-joe-biden-run-for-president-in) is significantly higher than "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" (https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n). This market is to suss out how much of that is "Biden will not be healthy enough to nominate" vs. "A challenger/the VP will be more desirable for other reasons."

If Biden is nominated, this resolves to No.

If Biden does not run, this resolves to No.

If Biden drops out of the race before being nominated and cites health issues as an important part of his withdrawal, this resolves to Yes.

If Biden is not nominated and is dead, this resolves to Yes. (Cryopreserved is the same as dead for the purpose of this question.)

If Biden is not nominated and had highly-publicized serious health issues running up to the nomination (hospitalization for life-threatening health problems - like a heart attack or stroke or a diagnosis with an attached time-to-live of less than his term if he were to be elected), this resolves to Yes.

If Biden is not nominated and both Fox News and MSNBC cite his health as the most important factor during the coverage the day after the nomination, this resolves to Yes.

In other cases where Biden is not nominated, this resolves based on my best judgment.

If you know when the nomination will occur, make a comment so I can update the close date to before the nomination.

Joe Biden in a hospital bed
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bought Ṁ50 of NO

I sold my shares in case my having a position in the market was preventing other people from investing.