Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024? | Manifold Markets

closes Nov 5, 2024

136

Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?

90%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm

Presidential Politics

The Life of Biden

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TexanElitebought Ṁ100 of YES

Honestly it amazes me how much doubt the market thinks there is in him running, it seems like a forgone conclusion except if some immediate health concern arises, which i wouldn’t put at 10%

Gabriellebought Ṁ500 of YES

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ap-interview-biden-ready-to-run-first-lady-jill-biden-says/

First lady Jill Biden gave one of the clearest indications yet that President Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview on Friday that there's "pretty much" nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement.

Zachary Freitas-Groffis predicting NO at 79%

Isn't this market way out of whack with the question of whether he wins the nomination?

I assume he only can be the nominee if he runs. This means 11% chance he runs but isn't nominated. That seems too high by 2x or more—elected incumbents don't lose primaries.

I'm trying to arbitrage it but honestly just confused by how stubborn the gap is.

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

@ZacharyFreitasGroff Here's a market explicitly about that chance:

N.C. Youngis predicting YES at 69%

"Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?"

Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?

Arbitrage:

Gigacastingbought Ṁ5 of NOHe’s 16% to win….

Kormann sold Ṁ5 NO from 89% to 90%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ112 YES at 89%

evergreen bought Ṁ10 YES at 89%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ20 NO from 90% to 89%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ104 YES from 89% to 90%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ67 YES at 89%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ79 YES at 89%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ101 YES from 88% to 89%

Al Quinn bought Ṁ30 NO from 89% to 88%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ194 YES from 88% to 89%

na pewno bought Ṁ10 NO from 89% to 88%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ30 YES at 89%

Eugger bought Ṁ5 YES at 89%

David Sartor bought Ṁ10 NO at 89%

Derik K bought Ṁ25 YES at 89%

Predictor 🔥 sold Ṁ53 YES at 89%

Erick Ball bought Ṁ30 YES at 89%

TexanElite bought Ṁ100 YES from 88% to 89%

Bolton Bailey bought Ṁ95 YES at 88%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 95%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 85%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 84%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 83%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 82%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 81%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 80%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 79%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 78%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 77%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 76%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 75%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 74%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 73%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 72%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 71%

N.C. Young created limit order for Ṁ125 YES at 70%

TexanElite bought Ṁ50 YES at 88%

Johnny Ten-Numbers bought Ṁ50 NO from 89% to 88%

Alex Amadori sold Ṁ20 YES at 89%

Iceberg Bear bought Ṁ8 NO from 90% to 89%

mvdm bought Ṁ100 YES from 89% to 90%

Alex Amadori bought Ṁ20 YES at 89%

Tom Pan bought Ṁ10 NO from 90% to 89%

Tom Pan bought Ṁ11 NO at 90%

Tom Pan bought Ṁ10 NO at 90%

Tom Pan bought Ṁ10 NO at 90%

Arrrrrrr 🤖Bot bought Ṁ112 YES at 90%

Isaac King sold Ṁ58 YES at 90%

Semiotic Rivalry bought Ṁ10 NO from 91% to 90%

Semiotic Rivalry bought Ṁ10 NO at 91%

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