closes Nov 5, 2024
Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm
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TexanElite avatar
TexanElitebought Ṁ100 of YES

Honestly it amazes me how much doubt the market thinks there is in him running, it seems like a forgone conclusion except if some immediate health concern arises, which i wouldn’t put at 10%

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ500 of YES

First lady Jill Biden gave one of the clearest indications yet that President Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview on Friday that there's "pretty much" nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement. 

ZacharyFreitasGroff avatar
Zachary Freitas-Groffis predicting NO at 79%

Isn't this market way out of whack with the question of whether he wins the nomination?

I assume he only can be the nominee if he runs. This means 11% chance he runs but isn't nominated. That seems too high by 2x or more—elected incumbents don't lose primaries.

I'm trying to arbitrage it but honestly just confused by how stubborn the gap is.

JoshuaB avatar

@ZacharyFreitasGroff Here's a market explicitly about that chance:

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting YES at 69%

"Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?"

Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar


Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ5 of NOHe’s 16% to win….