Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?
147
392
1.7K
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
YES
Close date updated to 2024-11-05 11:59 pm
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predicted YES

Resolves YES.


https://www.newsmax.com/politics/joe-biden-election-2024-president-democrats-trump/2023/04/25/id/1117393/

President Joe Biden on Tuesday formally announced that he is running for reelection in 2024, asking voters to give him more time to “finish the job” he began when he was sworn in to office and to set aside their concerns about extending the run of America’s oldest president for another four years.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Honestly it amazes me how much doubt the market thinks there is in him running, it seems like a forgone conclusion except if some immediate health concern arises, which i wouldn’t put at 10%

bought Ṁ500 of YES

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ap-interview-biden-ready-to-run-first-lady-jill-biden-says/

First lady Jill Biden gave one of the clearest indications yet that President Joe Biden will run for a second term, telling The Associated Press in an exclusive interview on Friday that there's "pretty much" nothing left to do but figure out the time and place for the announcement. 

predicted NO

Isn't this market way out of whack with the question of whether he wins the nomination?

I assume he only can be the nominee if he runs. This means 11% chance he runs but isn't nominated. That seems too high by 2x or more—elected incumbents don't lose primaries.

I'm trying to arbitrage it but honestly just confused by how stubborn the gap is.

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

@ZacharyFreitasGroff Here's a market explicitly about that chance:

predicted YES

"Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?"

Will Joe Biden run for President in 2024?

Arbitrage:

bought Ṁ5 of NO
He’s 16% to win….